October 15, 2008 at 10:48 pm
The recent conflict between Cambodia and Thailand did pose serious concern over our country´s stability and security. We really don´t know to what extend the war will become in the future. And we are asking if there would be any hidden agenda in the conflict, and if not, what is the resolution to stop this unnecessary war?
The possible hidden agenda:
Cambodia
Hun Sen might want to help his close and share personal interest friend, Thaksin Sinawatra whos was ousted by the military coup last year, by helping his in-law , Somchai, to stay in power. The PPP governement has always been troubled by the People Alliance for Democracy (PAD), the extremist Thais, with daily mass protests which deepen Thai internal conflict day after day. This act of declaring war of Hun Sen can divert the PAD´s attention from protest against its own government to look at the external issues and calmdown or united with the government.
It can be a political strategy of Hun Sen. This is the only alternative to finish the conflict through the help of the third parties -UN, ICJ, and Asean, as Cambodian people wanted. Unfortunately, this resolution is not welcomed by the UN and Asean body as long as the situation is not seriously concerned. So this might make Hun Sen government to have patience for the right time to come.
If Hun Sen government is really protecting the soveriegnty of Cambodia, so Hun Sen government must understand that to take bilateral negotiation is not the advantage at all and Cambodia might lose her territorial integrity to Thailand and therefore only the third party´s intervention may help and protect the nation from loss, so the third party is needed and the resolution is to react militarily against the endless invasion of Thailnd.
It also can be a boost for political support for Hun Sen government and divert the Cambodian people´s attention from the quiet protest of the opposition of the disturb result of recent unfair national election and more importantly to divert the Cambodians from launching another protest against the third aniversary of the Supplemental Treay 15 October 2005 which validates the 1985 treaty of the Vietnamese invasion back to life, which he himself personally signed it.
Hun Sen may be pushed to war by Vietnam for Vietnam will not want to see Cambodia at peace for this will cause the loss of its future´s political control over Cambodia. And Hun Sen may get any secret agenda with Vietnam as well.
Will Cambodia lose the war? It may be said that Cambodia won´t lose it, but Cambodia will take advantage in taking in the international intervention if Cambodian government truly serves the country. If the war is just to help Thaksin´s crony to stay in power, then Cambodia will be absolutely at a big loss.
Thailand
It also can be the Thai hidden politics to bring its unity by provoking the outrage of Cambodian leaders by keep invading to the last patience of Cambodia in order to wage war against Cambodia. The reason is that the weak Thai government can divert the PAD to become its alliance and united as a nation and move against the external country, Cambodia.
It´s about superiority. The Thai and Cambodia keep claiming superiority over each another. We are the rivalery neighbors over the history. This act means the Thai want to take pride over Cambodia that they will not submitt to Cambodia.
It actually about increasing the nationalism among the Thai and with this the PPP goernment will be able to collect political sympathy among the Thais.
This will paly as a military show-off to its neigbors because Thai military is known as weak and inexperiened even though they are equiped with the modern weapons they will have a hard time to deal with the poorly equiped but better experiened Cambodian soldiers. If they can bug down Cambodia soldiers it will bring more confidence among their soldiers for future military operation against other neigbors. With this, they will not let the opportunity goes away easily.
It might be the case of taking revenge over the lost of Khmer Preah Vihear temple.
Thai politics is always about saving face. This operation actually may save its losing face from the last few months´s invading acts as being viewed by the international community and become the rightious by not the one who first declares the war. But take this advatage it ignites the war.
All these hidden agenda can be called the strategy of “Uniting one´s Country on the expense of the other nation.” Cambodian leaders must be aware of this inhuman strategy.
Will Thailand win the war? Thailand will not win the war. But thai may win over its people´s heart for unity. With this war, Thailand just regain national unity for a while if possible and save its face but it will then confront the international judgement and lastly it will lose its greed and alibi forver to invade Cambodia in the future.
Can we solve the conflict peacefully? Yes!
The resolution is easy as everyone must say:
The two countries must bring the case to the credible third parties- UN Security Council, International Court of Justice or at least Asean.
It also can be solved through bilateral resolution.
The two countries must stick to a truly honest neighborhood principle and the resolutions stated above must be solved basing on the international recognized legal documents and treaties- 1904 and 1907 Siam-french Treaty, the verdict of ICJ 1962, and the 1935 Siam-French border resolution treaty.
But this is not happened because the Thai has claimed that it needs bilateral resolution rather than the international intervention or keep claiming that its country is having the internal problem and asks Cambodia to wait. And it always flip-flops that it has the will to solve the issues peacefully. Cambodia can not wait. The longer the issue is prolongued the advantage will be lost on the Cambodian side. Therefore, to stop the war the third party´s intervention must be the last choice.
However, we do put doubt over Thai political atittude for its dishonesty and treachery by observing the following cases:
If Thailand is truly honest in its national and international politics and a true freindly neighbor Thailand should be the one who takes a lead in bringing the case to the International Court of Justice, United Nation Security Council (ICJ), and Asean, because Thailand always keeps claiming that Cambodia invades its territory and the ICJ is injustice. But why it denies Cambodia chalenge in the international level and yet keeps dishnoestly demanding the bilateral resolution? Thai deplomatic can reach the rest of the world any time it wants why refuses to openly fight peacefully for its justice in the international arena with Cambodia through court and dialogue?
If Thailand is truly a good neigbor, Thailand must not have sent its troop to station on Cambodian land. If Thailand also claims for the land and have materials in hand recognized by the international body, why don´t use the existing Joint Committee for Border Resolution that the two countries have established to solve the issue instead of sending troop to provoke the war?
if Thai themseves do accept the interal political trouble and have often asked Cambodian to be patient and understanding why Thai government allows its troops to encraoch Cambodia day after day? Why don´t they spare time the Cambodian government given to them to strenghten the stability inside its own nation and regain its reputation in the international community?
These are truly unacceptable in the political game of Thailand towards its neigbor. The world must see understand this and push for the peaceful resolution as soon as possible in order to avoid any unpredictable causalty by the conflicts.
Conflicts causalty as up today
Cambodia:
Two Cambodian soldiers died.
Three Cambodian soldiers slightly wounded.
Thailand
Three Thai soldiers lost their legs by stepping on landmine.
Ten Thai soldiers seriously wounded.
Ten Thai soldiers captured.
Six Thai soldiers died.
The ten Thai soldiers captured and their weapons confesticated during the fighting on Wednesday 15-10-2008.
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